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Monday, August 24, 2009

Next Bubble - Health Care?

It seems that too many resources are going to health care. I have heard numbers of around one-fifth of gross domestic product going to health care. Based upon recent construction projects that I have seen and a cursory review of web searches, there seem to be a lot of new hospitals and expansions of existing hospitals. This could just be the most visible aspect of medical care capacity expansion. Researching financial data to check this would not be difficult but it seems obvious. This could be in response to demand that is artificially enhanced by specific government stimulation along with monetary expansion. (The same as happened with housing.) Certainly the growth in government medical programs, tax incentives, and mandates on private health insurance are indications to business of accelerating market growth. Low interests rates thanks to the Fed have encouraged all kinds of capital projects. (This is the basis of the Austrian School theory of business cycles.)

However, web searches also reveal a lot of stalled projects due to lack of financing. Entrepreneurs are no doubt undercutting higher cost hospital based care. People are looking for alternatives and are foregoing nonurgent medical care. The turn down can be attributed to recession based fears and caution on the part of consumers. When things get tight, apparently medical care is not high on the list of what people see as necessities. The actual priority that people place upon their wants and needs eventually asserts itself. Housing was pumped up by government intervention and of course eventually fell. If not health care what could be next? Maybe education?

Only a free market can allocate resources to where they can best be used to satisfy our wants as we prioritize those wants. Government is not able to do this according to economic theory as born out by attempts at socialization. Time to try less government and more freedom maybe?

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